Israel, Hamas Agree To Initial Hostage And Ceasefire Deal

Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas have reached the first stage of a ceasefire agreement that would begin the process of freeing Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Israel releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, allowing residents of northern Gaza to safely return to their homes, and withdrawing Israeli military forces from the strip.

Much still depends on the implementation of the deal, which is set to occur in three stages. But there is now, at more than any time since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, 2023, a glimmer of hope for the long-suffering people of Gaza, devastated by a ferocious Israeli invasion, and for the families of the 98 Israeli hostages ― many of whom are dead ― whom the Israeli government believes remain in Hamas captivity.

The outcome provides an early political win for President-elect Donald Trump ― and a belated and bittersweet one for President Joe Biden, whose many months of start-and-stop diplomacy leading up to the deal sparked internal frustration and political backlash.

Trump is sure to credit his own pressure tactics since winning the November election for sealing the accord. He warned that “all hell will break out” if Hamas did not release the Israeli hostages by his inauguration on Jan. 20. With the permission of the Biden administration, Trump also dispatched Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, to oversee multilateral negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar, where Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. officials served as mediators. Witkoff reportedly also exerted pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a surprise meeting on Saturday, according to a report in Haaretz quoting an Israeli senior diplomat.

Matt Duss, executive vice president of the left-leaning Center for International Policy, said Tuesday that the emerging deal was “good news,” but “long overdue.”

“Trump’s pressure seems to have made a difference here, which reflects badly on Biden,” said Duss, who has been critical of Biden for not exerting more pressure on the Israeli government. “The key question is what enforcement mechanisms there will be from phase to phase.”

Khaled Elgindy, a former adviser to Palestinian Authority leaders and the author of “Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians, from Balfour to Trump,” likewise said he was “cautiously” optimistic, noting that a lot depended on implementation and follow-through.

“We could get a deal that’s stuck in Phase One,” said Elgindy, who teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. “There would be a lot of deference to the Israeli side. I don’t see Trump calling out Israel if they violate the terms of the agreement.”

The first phase of the agreement would see a temporary cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel, and the allowance of a massive influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Hamas would gradually release 33 Israeli hostages categorized as “humanitarian” ― children; women, including female soldiers; people who are sick; and older men, according to multiple news reports quoting Israeli officials.

Israel would release a significantly higher number of Palestinian prisoners from its custody for each hostage released, beginning with women and minors it is currently holding.

Israel is prepared to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from its prison system in the first phase, but the number would depend on how many of the first 33 hostages are still alive, The New York Times reported. Israeli authorities, who are seeking to recover the bodies of dead hostages as well, believe that about 36 of the hostages still in Gaza are dead.

During this first stage, the Israeli military would allow Gazans to return to northern Gaza, which has been largely destroyed, and would withdraw significant military personnel once the hostages are completely returned.

Just over two weeks into the deal taking effect, Israel and Hamas would begin negotiating terms of a second stage in which Hamas would release adult male hostages, including male soldiers. Israel would, in exchange, initiate a broader round of Palestinian prisoner releases, including of high-level security prisoners, and withdraw its military from additional territory. By the completion of the deal, Israel would dismantle military installations and withdraw to the edges of Gaza, according to The Times of Israel.

A third and final stage would finalize any outstanding hostage and prisoner exchanges and allow the reconstruction of Gaza to begin.

The current war in Gaza is among the bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century. It began when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis, the vast majority of them civilians, and took some 250 Israelis and foreign nationals hostage.

Hamas’ brutal assault, the worst civilian massacre in Israel’s history, prompted an unprecedented Israeli aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza that has, in turn, elicited accusations of war crimes and even genocide from major foreign governments and human rights groups.

Over the course of 15 months, Israel has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians; displaced almost all of Gaza’s population; rendered huge swathes of the coastal enclave virtually uninhabitable; and deprived parts of the strip of adequate food, water, and essential supplies for sustained periods.

The Israel military insists that it has sought to limit civilian deaths and suffering despite Hamas’s use of civilian infrastructure and underground tunnels, but military records and firsthand accounts have confirmed, at a bare minimum, an Israeli policy of tolerating much higher civilian casualties in this war than in previous conflicts.

In a rare diplomatic win since the war began, the Biden administration helped broker a temporary ceasefire deal in November 2023 that resulted in the release of 105 Israeli hostages and a surge in humanitarian aid for Gazan civilians.

But overall, the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has been a major political and diplomatic debacle for Biden, upending the final year of his term and contributing to a sense of global chaos that is sure to shape his legacy.

Biden’s virtually unconditional funding and diplomatic support for Israel cost him dearly with a portion of the Democratic electorate, and with a diverse array of observers who faulted him for failing to temper some of Israel’s excesses with effective pressure. At the same time, Biden’s increasingly open frustration with Netanyahu and criticism of Israeli policies became fodder for attacks from Trump and his allies on the staunchly pro-Israel right.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.